{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# TRAPPIST-1 Follow-up" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "In this tutorial, we will use the discovery data for the TRAPPIST-1 planetary system to illustrate how to use `transitforecast` to prioritize follow-up windows." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "# Import some packages we know we're going to need\n", "import lightkurve as lk\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import pandas as pd" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "%matplotlib notebook" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Load the data" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "First, let's load in the dataset." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
| \n", " | time | \n", "flux | \n", "flux_err | \n", "trend | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.996553 | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.999392 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.997024 | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.999422 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.995654 | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.999356 | \n", "
| 3 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "1.000173 | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.999391 | \n", "
| 4 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "1.001591 | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.999457 | \n", "
| ... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
| 12507 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.997818 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12508 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.994002 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12509 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "1.005075 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12510 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.994781 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12511 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "1.001893 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
12512 rows × 4 columns
\n", "| \n", " | time | \n", "flux | \n", "flux_err | \n", "trend | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.996553 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "0.999392 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.997024 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "0.999422 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "0.995654 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "0.999356 | \n", "
| 3 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "1.000173 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "0.999391 | \n", "
| 4 | \n", "2.457283e+06 | \n", "1.001591 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "0.999457 | \n", "
| ... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
| 12507 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.997818 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12508 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.994002 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12509 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "1.005075 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12510 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "0.994781 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
| 12511 | \n", "2.457390e+06 | \n", "1.001893 | \n", "0.004316 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "
12512 rows × 4 columns
\n", "| \n", " | median | \n", "lower | \n", "upper | \n", "t1 | \n", "t2 | \n", "dt | \n", "fraction | \n", "M | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2016-04-25 07:54:02.169083655 | \n", "2016-04-25 05:58:03.072008193 | \n", "2016-04-25 09:46:03.071997464 | \n", "2016-04-25 09:38:03.072026074 | \n", "2016-04-25 09:46:03.071997464 | \n", "0.005556 | \n", "0.000077 | \n", "0.010311 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2016-04-28 08:25:35.712866485 | \n", "2016-04-28 06:28:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-04-28 10:20:03.071996570 | \n", "2016-04-28 09:26:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-04-28 10:20:03.071996570 | \n", "0.037500 | \n", "0.022184 | \n", "0.437558 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2016-05-07 10:00:16.784405708 | \n", "2016-05-07 07:56:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-05-07 11:58:03.072008193 | \n", "2016-05-07 08:50:03.071996570 | \n", "2016-05-07 10:42:03.071998358 | \n", "0.077778 | \n", "0.881416 | \n", "8.382135 | \n", "
| 3 | \n", "2016-05-10 10:31:50.389222205 | \n", "2016-05-10 08:26:03.072001934 | \n", "2016-05-10 12:32:03.072007298 | \n", "2016-05-10 08:38:03.071999252 | \n", "2016-05-10 10:44:03.072031438 | \n", "0.087500 | \n", "0.633717 | \n", "5.356937 | \n", "
| 4 | \n", "2016-05-13 11:03:23.873741627 | \n", "2016-05-13 08:56:03.072015345 | \n", "2016-05-13 13:06:03.072006404 | \n", "2016-05-13 08:56:03.072015345 | \n", "2016-05-13 10:44:03.072031438 | \n", "0.075000 | \n", "0.301813 | \n", "2.976503 | \n", "
| 5 | \n", "2016-05-16 11:34:57.452004254 | \n", "2016-05-16 09:26:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-05-16 13:38:03.072012663 | \n", "2016-05-16 09:26:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-05-16 10:46:03.072024286 | \n", "0.055556 | \n", "0.083821 | \n", "1.115981 | \n", "
| 6 | \n", "2016-05-19 12:06:31.104698181 | \n", "2016-05-19 09:54:03.072009087 | \n", "2016-05-19 14:12:03.072011769 | \n", "2016-05-19 09:54:03.072009087 | \n", "2016-05-19 10:48:03.072017133 | \n", "0.037500 | \n", "0.011385 | \n", "0.224566 | \n", "
| 7 | \n", "2016-05-22 12:38:04.799797833 | \n", "2016-05-22 10:24:03.072022498 | \n", "2016-05-22 14:46:03.072010875 | \n", "2016-05-22 10:24:03.072022498 | \n", "2016-05-22 10:48:03.072017133 | \n", "0.016667 | \n", "0.000840 | \n", "0.037271 | \n", "
| \n", " | median | \n", "lower | \n", "upper | \n", "t1 | \n", "t2 | \n", "dt | \n", "fraction | \n", "M | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2016-06-17 09:10:53.310075402 | \n", "2016-06-17 08:26:03.072001934 | \n", "2016-06-17 09:58:03.071994781 | \n", "2016-06-17 08:26:03.072001934 | \n", "2016-06-17 09:58:03.071994781 | \n", "0.063889 | \n", "1.0 | \n", "3.419136 | \n", "
| \n", " | median | \n", "lower | \n", "upper | \n", "t1 | \n", "t2 | \n", "dt | \n", "fraction | \n", "M | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2016-01-11 00:49:13.204058111 | \n", "2016-01-11 00:04:03.072026968 | \n", "2016-01-11 01:32:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-01-11 00:04:03.072026968 | \n", "2016-01-11 00:24:03.071995676 | \n", "0.013889 | \n", "0.004384 | \n", "0.007768 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2016-05-05 10:08:25.189360678 | \n", "2016-05-05 08:42:03.072025180 | \n", "2016-05-05 11:22:03.072016239 | \n", "2016-05-05 08:58:03.072008193 | \n", "2016-05-05 10:40:03.072005510 | \n", "0.070833 | \n", "0.977488 | \n", "0.339571 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2016-06-11 08:19:23.191089034 | \n", "2016-06-11 06:40:03.072018921 | \n", "2016-06-11 09:44:03.072004616 | \n", "2016-06-11 06:40:03.072018921 | \n", "2016-06-11 09:44:03.072004616 | \n", "0.127778 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "0.192576 | \n", "
| \n", " | median | \n", "lower | \n", "upper | \n", "t1 | \n", "t2 | \n", "dt | \n", "fraction | \n", "M | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2016-04-17 10:15:57.034103572 | \n", "2016-04-17 09:10:03.072005510 | \n", "2016-04-17 12:00:03.072001040 | \n", "2016-04-17 10:10:03.072032332 | \n", "2016-04-17 10:34:03.072026968 | \n", "0.016667 | \n", "0.517513 | \n", "0.448138 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2016-04-24 10:38:49.041829705 | \n", "2016-04-24 09:30:03.072014451 | \n", "2016-04-24 12:26:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-04-24 09:42:03.072011769 | \n", "2016-04-24 10:36:03.072019815 | \n", "0.037500 | \n", "0.436740 | \n", "0.168086 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2016-05-08 11:24:33.707167804 | \n", "2016-05-08 10:12:03.072025180 | \n", "2016-05-08 13:18:03.072003722 | \n", "2016-05-08 10:12:03.072025180 | \n", "2016-05-08 10:42:03.071998358 | \n", "0.020833 | \n", "0.001383 | \n", "0.000958 | \n", "
| 3 | \n", "2016-05-15 11:47:25.927566290 | \n", "2016-05-15 10:32:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-05-15 13:46:03.072024286 | \n", "2016-05-15 10:32:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-05-15 10:46:03.072024286 | \n", "0.009722 | \n", "0.000149 | \n", "0.000221 | \n", "
| 4 | \n", "2016-05-24 06:16:01.739784479 | \n", "2016-05-24 04:58:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-05-24 08:18:03.072030544 | \n", "2016-05-24 07:44:03.072031438 | \n", "2016-05-24 08:18:03.072030544 | \n", "0.023611 | \n", "0.000969 | \n", "0.000592 | \n", "
| 5 | \n", "2016-06-07 07:01:46.144210696 | \n", "2016-06-07 05:38:03.071999252 | \n", "2016-06-07 09:12:03.071998358 | \n", "2016-06-07 06:48:03.072030544 | \n", "2016-06-07 09:12:03.071998358 | \n", "0.100000 | \n", "0.734736 | \n", "0.106040 | \n", "
| 6 | \n", "2016-06-14 07:24:38.305788338 | \n", "2016-06-14 05:58:03.072008193 | \n", "2016-06-14 09:38:03.072026074 | \n", "2016-06-14 06:22:03.072002828 | \n", "2016-06-14 09:38:03.072026074 | \n", "0.136111 | \n", "0.999782 | \n", "0.106011 | \n", "
| 7 | \n", "2016-06-21 07:47:30.605084002 | \n", "2016-06-21 06:20:03.072009981 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:06:03.072006404 | \n", "2016-06-21 06:20:03.072009981 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:06:03.072006404 | \n", "0.156944 | \n", "1.000000 | \n", "0.091959 | \n", "
| 8 | \n", "2016-06-28 08:10:23.037430644 | \n", "2016-06-28 06:40:03.072018921 | \n", "2016-06-28 10:32:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-06-28 10:10:03.072032332 | \n", "2016-06-28 10:32:03.071993887 | \n", "0.015278 | \n", "0.000315 | \n", "0.000298 | \n", "
| \n", " | median | \n", "lower | \n", "upper | \n", "t1 | \n", "t2 | \n", "dt | \n", "fraction | \n", "M | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | \n", "2016-01-05 05:13:58.317373395 | \n", "2016-01-03 04:56:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-01-07 01:04:03.072013557 | \n", "2016-01-04 00:02:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-01-07 00:40:03.072018921 | \n", "3.026389 | \n", "0.042346 | \n", "0.000040 | \n", "
| 1 | \n", "2016-01-09 16:57:48.201130629 | \n", "2016-01-07 13:30:03.072001040 | \n", "2016-01-11 22:14:03.072018027 | \n", "2016-01-08 00:02:03.071993887 | \n", "2016-01-11 00:24:03.071995676 | \n", "3.015278 | \n", "0.453680 | \n", "0.000430 | \n", "
| 2 | \n", "2016-04-17 10:56:18.918573260 | \n", "2016-04-15 02:36:03.072006404 | \n", "2016-04-19 14:16:03.071997464 | \n", "2016-04-15 10:18:03.072003722 | \n", "2016-04-19 10:34:03.072026968 | \n", "4.011111 | \n", "1.320944 | \n", "0.000942 | \n", "
| 3 | \n", "2016-04-21 22:39:37.912777662 | \n", "2016-04-19 14:20:03.072023392 | \n", "2016-04-24 02:00:03.072014451 | \n", "2016-04-20 09:58:03.071994781 | \n", "2016-04-23 10:36:03.072019815 | \n", "3.026389 | \n", "0.640823 | \n", "0.000606 | \n", "
| 4 | \n", "2016-04-30 22:06:49.917940199 | \n", "2016-04-28 13:42:03.071998358 | \n", "2016-05-03 01:22:03.072029650 | \n", "2016-04-29 09:22:03.072002828 | \n", "2016-04-30 10:38:03.072012663 | \n", "1.052778 | \n", "0.050620 | \n", "0.000138 | \n", "
| 5 | \n", "2016-05-05 09:51:17.114872634 | \n", "2016-05-03 01:24:03.072022498 | \n", "2016-05-07 13:04:03.072013557 | \n", "2016-05-05 08:58:03.072008193 | \n", "2016-05-07 10:42:03.071998358 | \n", "2.072222 | \n", "0.589017 | \n", "0.000813 | \n", "
| 6 | \n", "2016-05-09 21:36:01.162970960 | \n", "2016-05-07 13:06:03.072006404 | \n", "2016-05-12 00:46:03.071997464 | \n", "2016-05-08 08:46:03.072010875 | \n", "2016-05-11 10:44:03.072031438 | \n", "3.081944 | \n", "0.961680 | \n", "0.000893 | \n", "
| 7 | \n", "2016-05-14 09:19:56.282427013 | \n", "2016-05-12 00:48:03.072030544 | \n", "2016-05-16 12:28:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-05-12 08:32:03.072020710 | \n", "2016-05-16 10:46:03.072024286 | \n", "4.093056 | \n", "1.112021 | \n", "0.000777 | \n", "
| 8 | \n", "2016-05-18 21:03:30.923901200 | \n", "2016-05-16 12:30:03.072014451 | \n", "2016-05-21 00:10:03.072005510 | \n", "2016-05-17 08:12:03.072011769 | \n", "2016-05-20 10:48:03.072017133 | \n", "3.108333 | \n", "1.095603 | \n", "0.001008 | \n", "
| 9 | \n", "2016-05-23 08:46:45.407407880 | \n", "2016-05-21 00:12:03.071998358 | \n", "2016-05-25 11:52:03.072029650 | \n", "2016-05-21 07:56:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-05-25 10:50:03.072009981 | \n", "4.120833 | \n", "1.057946 | \n", "0.000735 | \n", "
| 10 | \n", "2016-06-01 08:17:53.146234453 | \n", "2016-05-29 23:34:03.072013557 | \n", "2016-06-03 11:14:03.072004616 | \n", "2016-06-01 07:12:03.072025180 | \n", "2016-06-03 10:54:03.071995676 | \n", "2.154167 | \n", "0.364062 | \n", "0.000484 | \n", "
| 11 | \n", "2016-06-05 20:01:10.249079168 | \n", "2016-06-03 11:18:03.072030544 | \n", "2016-06-07 22:58:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-06-04 07:00:03.072027862 | \n", "2016-06-07 10:56:03.072028756 | \n", "3.163889 | \n", "0.898511 | \n", "0.000813 | \n", "
| 12 | \n", "2016-06-10 07:44:40.319988728 | \n", "2016-06-07 23:00:03.072014451 | \n", "2016-06-12 10:40:03.072005510 | \n", "2016-06-08 06:44:03.072004616 | \n", "2016-06-12 10:40:03.072005510 | \n", "4.163889 | \n", "0.819620 | \n", "0.000563 | \n", "
| 13 | \n", "2016-06-19 07:10:47.093962133 | \n", "2016-06-16 22:22:03.072029650 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:02:03.072020710 | \n", "2016-06-17 06:10:03.072005510 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:02:03.072020710 | \n", "4.161111 | \n", "0.936726 | \n", "0.000644 | \n", "
| 14 | \n", "2016-06-23 18:50:43.095423281 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:04:03.072013557 | \n", "2016-06-25 21:44:03.072004616 | \n", "2016-06-21 10:04:03.072013557 | \n", "2016-06-23 11:00:03.072014451 | \n", "2.038889 | \n", "0.249219 | \n", "0.000350 | \n", "
| 15 | \n", "2016-06-28 06:32:12.224160433 | \n", "2016-06-25 21:46:03.071997464 | \n", "2016-06-30 09:26:03.072028756 | \n", "2016-06-28 10:10:03.072032332 | \n", "2016-06-30 09:26:03.072028756 | \n", "1.969444 | \n", "0.401947 | \n", "0.000584 | \n", "
| 16 | \n", "2016-07-02 10:30:01.300375164 | \n", "2016-06-30 09:28:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-07-02 16:02:03.072020710 | \n", "2016-06-30 09:28:03.072021604 | \n", "2016-07-02 11:00:03.072014451 | \n", "2.063889 | \n", "0.695331 | \n", "0.000964 | \n", "